By Howard Feldman
I have been thinking about puppet shows.
But when I was a kid, one of the most frustrating things about puppet shows was that moment when the bad guy would come creeping onto the stage from behind.
We could see him. And we’d all start shouting.
“Behind you!”
“Turn around!”
“He’s right there!”
The more oblivious the good guy seemed, the louder we got. Because from where we were sitting, it looked obvious. We could see the danger. He couldn’t. Or at least that’s what we thought.
It was only years later that we realised that the puppet didn’t know. But the person controlling the puppet absolutely did.
That’s a little how I feel watching the Iran situation.
There are lots of people, including many who support Donald Trump and support Israel, who are looking at this deal and shouting at the television.
“Iran is right there.”
“How can you not see this?”
“How can you trust them?”
And I understand that reaction because I have it myself.
Iran has spent decades telling us who they are. Which makes the idea that Trump has suddenly forgotten who Iran is seems unlikely.
This is not a man who woke up last week and discovered the Middle East. He knows who the regime is. Not only has he known for years, but he has access to intelligence that makes whatever we’re reading on X look like a kindergarten newsletter.
Which leaves me with two possibilities.
Either Trump has genuinely changed, has become naïve, and believes things today that he didn’t believe before.
Or we’re in the middle of the act.
To be clear, being in the middle of the act doesn’t mean there is definitely a happy ending. After all, puppet shows are generally more predictable than geopolitics are.
But I struggle to believe that Trump is looking at Iran and seeing a friendly government that has suddenly embraced peace.
I just don’t buy it.
Partly because when you look closely at what has actually happened, the picture becomes more complicated.
The Memorandum of Understanding that has everyone talking is not a peace treaty. It is not a binding agreement. It is essentially a framework that creates space for de-escalation and, importantly, for the reopening and protection of the Strait of Hormuz.
The global economy has been holding its breath every time a missile flies across the region. Energy markets hate uncertainty. Investors hate uncertainty. Governments hate uncertainty. If there is one thing Donald Trump understands, it is economics.
There is another detail that many people seem to be overlooking. Israel is not a party to the agreement. Which means it is not bound by it. If Iran attempts to rebuild military capabilities, transfer advanced weapons or move aggressively toward its nuclear ambitions, Israel retains freedom of action.
That doesn’t look like somebody who believes the problem has been solved. It looks more like somebody creating room to breathe.
Then there was Trump’s very public irritation with Netanyahu following Israel’s strike on Hezbollah targets in Beirut. Many people interpreted that as a sign of division. Perhaps it was. But I suggest it was something way more simple.
If your objective is to temporarily lower the temperature, reopen critical shipping lanes and calm markets, then anything that threatens to reignite the conflict becomes an obstacle, even if you broadly agree with the reason for the strike.
The objective, it seems to me, is pause, not peace.
Trump has elections to think about. Republicans have congressional seats to defend and win. Economic growth. Stable energy prices. Consumer confidence all matter.
A Middle East war that constantly threatens global supply chains helps none of those things.
None of this means he trusts Iran. Trump knows exactly who Iran is and exactly what Iran is. He knows that whatever has been signed is unlikely to change that reality.
But he cannot say that out loud.
Diplomacy often requires people to publicly pretend that everyone believes things which privately nobody believes.
Maybe the goal isn’t to end the story but rather to stop the story from getting worse for a while.
Donald Trump has not forgotten everything he knows about Iran.
Us kids in the audience were right about one thing.
The bad guy really was there.
But we were wrong in assuming that we were the only ones who knew.